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FINNIFTY IV vs HV: Are Options Cheap or Expensive?

12 Nov close

Implied volatility (the move option prices expect) against historical volatility (the move FINNIFTY actually made), with the IV percentile.

NIFTYBANKNIFTYFINNIFTYMIDCPNIFTYSENSEXF&O stocks ↓
19.1 vs 20.9IV is 1.8 points below HV12 Nov close

In plain words: options are pricing FINNIFTY a little below how much it has really been moving (ATM IV 19.1% against 20.9% over the last 20 days, 0.91×). An IV percentile appears once 20 days are recorded (6 so far).

ATM IV
19.08
nearest expiry, our recording
ATM IV, 23 Nov expiry
19.1%
11 days left
HV 20 days
20.9%
the actual move, a month
HV 60 days
17.1%
the actual move, 3 months
IV percentile
–
builds up: 6 of 20 days
IV rank
–
needs more days

IV vs HV

each day we have recorded
IV (ATM IV)HV, last 20 daysIV above HVIV below HV

IV percentile

today against the days we have

The IV percentile needs 20 days of FINNIFTY IV. We have 6 so far from our option recording; it fills in day by day.

Information only, not investment advice.

What is the difference between IV and HV?

Historical volatility (HV) is how much the price actually moved, worked out from its daily closes and written as a yearly percentage. Implied volatility (IV) is the move that option prices assume from now to expiry. HV looks back; IV looks ahead.

What is IV percentile and how is it different from IV rank?

IV percentile is the share of past days (here, up to a year) when IV was lower than today. IV rank is where today's IV sits between the period's lowest and highest: 0 at the low, 100 at the high. One spike can keep IV rank low for months, so the percentile is usually the steadier reading.

Is FINNIFTY IV high today?

The top of this page compares FINNIFTY's IV (at-the-money IV) with its last 20 days' actual move and with its own past. IV well above HV, or an IV percentile above 80, means options are expensive; IV below HV or a percentile under 20 means they are cheap.

Why is IV usually above HV?

Option sellers take on the risk of a sudden big move, so they ask for a little more than the movement they expect. That extra is why IV has been above the move that followed on most days, and why selling options pays on average but loses heavily when a big move comes.

How often is this updated?

IV updates through the trading day; HV uses daily closes and changes once a day. The F&O stock table uses each stock's at-the-money options for the current month.

New to this? Read the guideIV rank and IV percentile7 min read

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