Implied volatility (the move option prices expect) against historical volatility (the move NIFTY actually made), with the IV percentile, and the same check for every F&O stock.
16.6 vs 14.8IV is 1.8 points above HV · IV percentile 7512 Nov close
In plain words: options are pricing NIFTY a little above how much it has really been moving (India VIX 16.6% against 14.8% over the last 20 days, 1.12×). That is the usual state: since 2007 IV has been above the move that followed on 80% of days. IV is higher than on 75% of the last year's days, but in the lower half of that range (IV rank 40), so options are neither cheap nor stretched.
India VIX
16.62
30-day IV of NIFTY
ATM IV, 17 Nov expiry
15.6%
5 days left
HV 20 days
14.8%
the actual move, a month
HV 60 days
13.8%
the actual move, 3 months
IV percentile (1 year)
75
higher than 75% of days
IV rank (1 year)
40
9.2 low · 27.9 high
IV vs HV
IV (India VIX)HV, last 20 daysIV above HVIV below HV
IV percentile
each day against the year before it
Today 16.6
1-year low 9.2high 27.9
IV percentile: days with lower IV
75%
IV rank: where today sits low to high
40
Did IV overstate the move?
India VIX each day against NIFTY's actual move over the next 20 sessions
Since 2007, India VIX was above the move NIFTY then made on 80% of days, by 3.0 points on average. That gap is why option sellers earn over time, and why buyers need a move bigger than the one priced in. In 2026 so far it held on only 57% of days: NIFTY has been moving more than options expected.
Year
Average IV
Actual move
IV above the actual move
2026(so far)
14.9%
14.3%
57%of days
2025
13.4%
10.8%
87%of days
2024
14.7%
13.2%
68%of days
2023
12.4%
9.5%
93%of days
2022
19.3%
16.3%
78%of days
2021
18.0%
14.8%
79%of days
2020
26.7%
24.8%
78%of days
2019
16.5%
13.1%
80%of days
2018
15.1%
12.3%
82%of days
2017
12.6%
9.1%
95%of days
2016
16.6%
14.3%
80%of days
2015
17.6%
15.6%
74%of days
2014
17.1%
12.8%
80%of days
2013
18.9%
17.0%
70%of days
2012
19.7%
14.3%
98%of days
2011
23.8%
20.5%
81%of days
2010
21.7%
15.9%
87%of days
2009
38.0%
29.8%
88%of days
2008
41.2%
44.4%
50%of days
2007
31.4%
29.6%
83%of days
IV vs HV for every F&O stock
IV from each stock's at-the-money options, current month
Dear: IV at least 1.25× the last 20 days' move (often ahead of results or news). Cheap: IV at most 0.85× (the stock moved more than its options now expect). A percentile for each stock's IV is not shown yet: it needs more days of our recordings.
Information only, not investment advice.
What is the difference between IV and HV?
Historical volatility (HV) is how much the price actually moved, worked out from its daily closes and written as a yearly percentage. Implied volatility (IV) is the move that option prices assume from now to expiry. HV looks back; IV looks ahead.
What is IV percentile and how is it different from IV rank?
IV percentile is the share of past days (here, up to a year) when IV was lower than today. IV rank is where today's IV sits between the period's lowest and highest: 0 at the low, 100 at the high. One spike can keep IV rank low for months, so the percentile is usually the steadier reading.
Is NIFTY IV high today?
The top of this page compares NIFTY's IV (India VIX) with its last 20 days' actual move and with its own past. IV well above HV, or an IV percentile above 80, means options are expensive; IV below HV or a percentile under 20 means they are cheap.
Why is IV usually above HV?
Option sellers take on the risk of a sudden big move, so they ask for a little more than the movement they expect. That extra is why IV has been above the move that followed on most days, and why selling options pays on average but loses heavily when a big move comes.
How often is this updated?
IV updates through the trading day; HV uses daily closes and changes once a day. The F&O stock table uses each stock's at-the-money options for the current month.